Simulación Monte Carlo como herramienta para priorizar los riesgos de los proyectos
Número
Sección
Publicado
16-04-2025
Resumen
En este artículo proponemos un método cuantitativo para priorizar los riesgos identificados en un proyecto. Basado en simulación de Montecarlo, la propuesta que presentamos evita la utilización de la matriz probabilidad – impacto por los problemas que plantea. Para conseguir ordenar por importancia los riesgos identificados en el proyecto, modelamos cada uno de los riesgos según funciones de probabilidad y, aplicando técnicas cuantitativas y simulación de Montecarlo, conseguimos medir el impacto real de cada una de las incertidumbres sobre los objetivos de coste y de duración del proyecto. Demostramos la validez de la metodología utilizando como ejemplo un caso de estudio.Palabras clave:
Matriz de probabilidad-impacto, análisis cuantitativo de riesgos, gestión del riesgo, simulación de Montecarlo, MCSimulRisk
Agencias de apoyo
- Esta investigación ha sido parcialmente financiada por la Junta de Castilla y León (España) y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) con la subvención VA180P20.
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Licencia
Derechos de autor 2025 Fernando Acebes Senovilla, José Manuel González Varona, Javier Pajares Gutiérrez, Adolfo López Paredes
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
Esta obra se encuentra bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional.